Taking stock
I've started my research for my UncleSugarCan'tDoMathButWantsMeToHaveMoneyAnyways refund, which I'm dumping back into the market. This is because things at work are lulling a bit -- other people are way behind on things for my department which means I can't test and/or do my sorts of things so I'll just sit here and cramp up* and do numbers in the meantime.
I am looking at the following stocks:
- Home Depot or Lowes
- Office Depot or Staples
- Target
- Ebay
See a trend? Here's the logic:
1. The housing market is coming to a slow halt, and possibly (in some areas) going backwards. Ergo, people are going to hold on to that house a few more years before attempting to sell it. They're going to want to improve it, either for themselves or for that future sale, and what with the cutting of interest points (which makes those fixed rate home equity loans really, really attractive) they're going to go someplace to get that stuff (vs. hiring someone, because of the general recessionary crunch). They can go to Home Depot or Lowes. Why did I pick Home Depot? Because I'm a total Hardware Whore and I don't like Lowes nearly as much as HD, I find the HD stock better and I think HD has a greater footprint. However, stockscouter ratings seem to prefer Lowes over HD, so I need to figure out if it's a leadership or Cash statement thing.
2. The business market is going to get competitive again. Really competitive. Because of this wonderful dollar-going-down thing, our manufactured goods (what we have of them) appear cheaper as imports into other countries -- therefore, other countries will (eventually) end up buying our stuff, which means we will need more post it notes and fax paper to handle the creating and selling of stuff. My choice of OD vs the Staples' type companies is brand recognition and again, bigger footprint. Again, Staples has the higher scout rating, so I need to look into that.
3. Wal Mart is taking a hit because while they *are* cheap, they *look* cheap. Target has Mizrahi and a semi-foo-foo imports section, ala Cost Plus. Recession + limited spending + occasional splurge + accessibility = To Target We Go.
4. Ebay is the tzotchke-friend's Target. With pay pal and the ability to find prettymuch anything, including these, means as people tighten the belt they are going to look for bargains. Again.
Say I go Lowes, Staples, Target, and Ebay. No, I can't do it. I <3 the HD.
Say I go HD, Staples, Target, and Ebay. HD is currently pricing at 28.40 and a lot closer to its 52 week low than its high, but climbing. Staples is 22.88 and climbing, Target is 54.10 and climbing, and Ebay is 27.84 and climbing.
I have $500 to spend, which, distributed evenly, is $125 per stock. I'll have roughly 4 shares of HD and 5 of staples and 2 of target and 4 of Ebay. If I'm willing to chuck in an extra $3.80 (plus the $4 per purchase fee, for 4 stocks, so really like $20) I can get 5 shares each of HD, Staples, and Ebay, and 2 shares of Target.
Here's the rub: Uncle Sugar isn't giving up the dough until May --> so I'm going to spend the next 3 months tracking my 'pseudo portfolio' via the MSN Watchlist. If it follows my predictions (e.g., goes up) then I'll reevaluate using the same logic and figure what to do with it then.
*From the department of Way! Too! Much! Information! I give you that I am apparently having "that time" of the month, which is really funny, because I have all sorts of things in place to make sure I don't get those. But I'm getting one anyways, which happens when I'm being a complete and total stress monkey. This would fit well, then, with the recent crying jags, horrible stomach cramps, and general acne malaise. Yay for womanhood.
